TCFD and BoE Conference on Climate Scenarios, Financial Risk and Strategic Planning

The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) held a two-day conference in collaboration with the Bank of England (BoE) discussing scenario analysis and how it can help companies assess climate risks in their strategic planning and risk management processes.

Day 1 provided a high-level overview of the TCFD recommendations with regard to the use of scenario analysis; what scenario analysis is and why it is useful for assessing climate-related risks; how climate-related scenario analysis works in practice today – who is using it; experiences; and available tools. Day 1 is was hosted by the FSB TCFD and was open to press.

Day 2 brought together business practitioners, leading researchers from academia, and finance professionals to discuss in more detail how climate-related scenarios can be used for strategic and financial risk analysis and how scenarios could be improved. The goal was to highlight successful approaches, and identify further work and collaboration needed in this area. Day 2 was hosted by the Bank of England and was held under Chatham House rules.

Stakeholder presentations, videos and photo gallery plus introductions can be found here.

India's Electricity Sector Transformation | IEEFA

IEEFA's latest report entails a comprehensive analysis of India’s electricity sector transformation with a focus on the coming decade.  

The report presents a sectoral model out to FY2027 that predicts dramatic market share gain by renewable energy with a sustained deflation in renewable tariffs, premised on 50% reduction already in last two years with a record low solar energy tariff of Rs2.44/kWh (US$38/MWh) in 2017. 

With record low renewable tariffs of US$18 and US$21/MWh set in Mexico and Chile respectively this past week, further Indian cost reductions are set to continue. This translates into likely peak power sector coal usage not more than 10% above the current levels by FY2027, subsequently, import thermal coal demand in India will continue to decline as a result. 

A combination of India’s ambitious energy policy and ongoing solar and wind energy tariff deflation will enable India to catalyse US$200-300Bn of investment in renewable energy infrastructure over the coming decade. Improvements in energy efficiency and reduction in technical and commercial losses will deliver better electricity production per coal tonnage. To conclude, the transformation will ensure India can support its economic growth while keeping GHG emissions in check.

Greenhouse gas concentrations surge to new record | World Meteorological Organization

Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere surged at a record-breaking speed in 2016 to the highest level in 800 000 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization's Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. The abrupt changes in the atmosphere witnessed in the past 70 years are without precedent.

Globally averaged concentrations of CO2 reached 403.3 parts per million in 2016, up from 400.00 ppm in 2015 because of a combination of human activities and a strong El Niño event. Concentrations of CO2 are now 145% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels, according to the Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

Rapidly increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have the potential to initiate unprecedented changes in climate systems, leading to “severe ecological and economic disruptions,” said the report.

A list 2017 | CDP

CDP, the world’s largest environmental disclosure platform, has just published its annual scores and analysis of how the biggest companies globally are responding to climate change.

Last year, they found many big companies failing to meet Paris Agreement goals. This year, companies are moving faster:  

• 89% of world’s biggest, most environmentally-impactful companies now have carbon emissions targets, with a fifth planning low-carbon into their futures to 2030 and beyond.

• 14% of 1,000+ sample are committed to aligning their targets with climate science, a 5% increase since last year. An additional 300+ companies (30%) plan to set science-based targets within two years.

• Companies are closing the emissions gap, with current targets taking the sample 31% of the way to a 2-degree world, up from 25% in 2016.

• The CDP A List names 159 leading corporates recognised as pioneers taking action on climate change, water and deforestation in 2017. Unilever and L'Oréal lead the way with A’s across all three areas.

Fourteen per cent of a sample of 1,073 responding companies have future-proofed their growth by committing to set science-based targets via the Science Based Targets initiative. 31 Australian companies responded, only 1 (3%) got A list ranking for climate change.

The press release and the full report can be downloaded.

Hot and Dry: Australia's Weird Winter | The Climate Council

Climate Change made Australia’s warmest winter on record an astounding 60 times more likely, according to this latest report by the Climate Council.

The “Hot & Dry: Australia’s Weird Winter,” report shows the nation experienced its warmest winter on record (for average maximum temperatures), while more than 260 heat and low rainfall recordswere also broken throughout the season.

Climate Councillor and ecologist, Professor Lesley Hughes said Australia’s hottest winter in history was related to worsening climate change.  “Without any meaningful action to tackle climate change, we will continue to see many more hot winters, just like this, as global temperatures rise,” she said. “We must take meaningful action to strongly reduce Australia’s emissions from fossil fuels."

What Lies Beneath | Breakthrough

Human-induced climate change is an existential risk to human civilisation, yet much climate research understates climate risks and provides conservative projections. Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that are crucial to climate policymaking and informing public narrative are characterised by scientific reticence, paying limited attention to lower-probability, high-risk events that are becoming increasingly likely.  

This latest Breakthrough report argues for an urgent risk reframing of climate research and the IPCC reports. Download the report here.

The Pears Report | ReNew Magazine

THE THREAT of electricity blackouts in southern Australia next summer and our bizarre ‘gas crisis’ seem to be dragging us out of the rock-throwing approach to energy policy making.

Disaster Alley, Climate Change Disaster and Risk | Ian Dunlop and David Spratt

The first responsibility of a government is to safeguard the people and their future well-being. The ability to do this is threatened by climate change, whose accelerating impacts will also drive political instability and conflict, posing large negative consequences to human society which may never be undone. This report looks at climate change and conflict issues through the lens of sensible risk-management to draw new conclusions about the challenge we now face. 

Most global investors recognise financial risk of climate change, report finds | The Guardian

For the first time a majority of global investor heavyweights recognise the financial risks of climate change, according to the results of a major global index rating how investors manage such risks.

But despite the advances, the Asset Owner Disclosure Project chairman, John Hewson, has warned there is still an “enormous resistance” to managing climate risk.

The AODP releases its fifth global index on Wednesday, ranking the world’s largest 500 asset owners and, for the first time, the 50 largest asset managers on their performance managing financial risks associated with climate change.

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Adani coalmine at heightened risk of becoming a stranded asset, report says | The Guardian

The risk of the controversial Adani Carmichael coalmine becoming a stranded asset has increased in the last 12 months, according to a new report.  The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), says the Carmichael project is likely to be “cash flow negative” for the majority its operating life, even with concessional loans. The IEEFA’s new report, Adani’s Remote Prospects, warns Adani Enterprises is not in a strong financial position.

It has thrown into doubt the wisdom of lending the project $1bn worth of taxpayers’ dollar through the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF).

It comes a week after John Hewson, a former Liberal party leader, warned the Carmichael coalmine was already a “stranded asset” and the last thing the Turnbull government should be doing is lending Adani $1bn. 

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The Pears Report - Don't mention the war | Alan Pears, ReNew

TONY Abbott did his best to kill off renewable energy when he was PM—and he’s still trying it seems. But it is interesting to look back at the consequences of his efforts. The war on renewables was meant to reduce electricity prices. But it has done the opposite—and a lot more......

Submission to the Victorian Government Retail Electricity Review | Alan Pears AM

The Victorian Government has appointed an independent panel to conduct a review of electricity and gas retail markets in Victoria (the review). The panel comprises John Thwaites, Terence Mulder and Patricia Faulkner. The panel will prepare a final report to the Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change that examines the operation of the Victorian electricity and gas retail markets and provides options that would improve outcomes for consumers.

The independent panel will be supported by a secretariat administered by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP).

The review will consider the operation of the electricity and gas retail markets in Victoria in respect of supply to residential and small business consumers – defined for Victorian regulatory purposes as consumers with annual consumption less than 40MWh for electricity and 1,000GJ for gas. 

Submissions in response to the discussion paper are invited by Tuesday 28 February 2017. 

Please click here to read Alan Pears' AM submission to the review.

Submission to NEM Security Review | Alan Pears AM

In December 2016 Dr Alan Finkel presented his preliminary report on the Independent Review into the Future of the Security of the National Electricity Market. 

Click here to read the submission made by Alan Pears in response to the report.  Alan is a Senior Industry Fellow at RMIT University and a member of the Climate Alliance board of advisors. Alan’s submission focuses on the role of energy efficiency. 

Dr Alan Finkel's preliminary report can be found here.

Global Risks Report 2017 | World Economic Forum

For over a decade, The Global Risks Report has focused attention on the evolution of global risks and the deep interconnections between them. The Report has also highlighted the potential of persistent, long-term trends such as inequality and deepening social and political polarisation to exacerbate risks associated with, for example, the weakness of the economic recovery and the speed of technological change.

These trends came into sharp focus during 2016, with rising political discontent and disaffection evident in countries across the world. The highest-profile signs of disruption may have come in Western countries – with the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union and President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election – but across the globe there is evidence of a growing backlash against elements of the domestic and international status quo.

Read more 

Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures report

The report outlines a set of recommendations for voluntary, decision-useful, climate-related disclosures to be made as part of mainstream financial filings. The recommendations will help organisations identify and disclose information needed by investors, lenders, and insurance underwriters to appropriately assess and price climate-related risks and opportunities.

The recommendations are issued for public consultation which is open until February 12, 2017.

The Task Force developed four widely adoptable recommendations on climate-related financial disclosures that are applicable to organisations across sectors and jurisdictions. Importantly, the Task Force’s recommendations apply to financial-sector organisations, including banks, insurance companies, asset managers, and asset owners. Large asset owners and asset managers sit at the top of the investment chain and, therefore, have an important role to play in influencing the organisations in which they invest to provide better climate-related financial disclosures.

The Task Force structured its recommendations around four thematic areas that represent core elements of how organisations operate: governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics and targets.

The four overarching recommendations are supported by recommended disclosures that build out the framework with information that will help investors and others understand how reporting organisations think about and assess climate-related risks and opportunities. In addition, there is guidance to support all organisations in developing climate-related financial disclosures consistent with the recommendations and recommended disclosures. The guidance assists preparers by providing context and suggestions for implementing the recommended disclosures. 

Click here to download the full report. The TCFD website has additional reports relating to the project: Public Consultation, Implementing the Recommendations and a Technical Supplement.

FUTURE SECURITY OF THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET | Australia's Chief Scientist

Australia’s Chief Scientist Dr Alan Finkel presented the Preliminary Report of the National Electricity Market (NEM) Security Review to COAG Leaders in Canberra last Friday.  The Preliminary Report identifies the forces of change confronting the NEM and key questions to guide consultations on the development of a blueprint for our nation’s electricity future.

“The blackout in South Australia reminds us that our national electricity grid is under pressure and in need of urgent attention,” said Dr Finkel, Chair of the Review.

“We now have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reform the electricity sector to maximise its resilience in the face of rapid market changes.

“The goal is to ensure we have a secure electricity supply, at an affordable price for all Australian consumers, while meeting our international obligations to lower emissions.”

You can download the report here.

Energy 2050: Insights from the ground up | McKinsey & Company

Adapting Portfolios to Climate Change | BlackRock

Implications and strategies for all investors

Investors can no longer ignore climate change. Some may question the science behind it, but all are faced with a swelling tide of climate-related regulations and technological disruption. Drawing on the insights of BlackRock’s investment professionals, we detail how investors can mitigate climate risks, exploit opportunities or have a positive impact. Climate-aware investing is possible without compromising on traditional goals of maximising investment returns, we conclude. We then reflect on steps that stakeholders in the climate debate are considering, including the use of carbon pricing as a cost-effective way to reduce emissions. Our overall conclusion: We believe all investors should incorporate climate change awareness into their investment processes. Read more

Business leaders heed warning on climate change risks | The Australian

The nation’s top regulators, legal experts and leading company ­directors have backed a warning to listed company boards to factor climate-related business risks into their decision-making or risk breaching their duties under the Corporations Act. At a recent private meeting in Melbourne, more than 30 senior business leaders, fund managers, legal experts and regulators gathered to consider a new legal opinion by Noel Hutley SC on how corporate law requires company directors to consider and respond to climate-related risks to business.

Renewable Energy Global Paper | Insights | DLA Piper

In a world where the corporate green agenda is increasingly integral to business strategy, particularly following the Paris climate change agreement, this paper explores the growing trend of large corporates using power purchase agreements (PPAs) to purchase renewable energy.