The Age of Consequences | ABC Four Corners

"We are not your traditional environmentalists." Gen. Gordon Sullivan (Retd), Fmr. Chief of Staff, U.S. Army

Four Corners brings you the views of distinguished former members of the US military and senior policy makers who warn that climate change is not only real, it's a threat to global security.

"I'm here today not only representing my views on security implications of climate change, but on the collective wisdom of 16 admirals and generals." Rear Admiral David Titley (Retd), U.S. Navy

They say climate change is impacting on vital resources, migration patterns and conflict zones.

"Climate change is one of the variables that must be considered when thinking about instability in the world." Gen. Gordon Sullivan (Retd), Fmr. Chief of Staff, U.S. Army

Rear Admiral David Titley spent 32 years in the US military. He was the US Navy's chief oceanographer and led the Navy's Task Force on Climate Change. He argues climate change must be acknowledged.

"Our collective bottom line judgement is that climate change is an accelerating risk to our nation's future." Rear Admiral David Titley (Retd), U.S. Navy

The film analyses the conflict in Syria, the social unrest of the Arab Spring, and the rise of groups like ISIS and how these experts believe climate change is already acting as a catalyst for conflict.

"This is the heart of the problem in many ways. Climate change arrives in a world that has already been destabilised." Dr Christian Parenti

Director Jared P Scott explores how water and food shortages, drought, extreme weather and rising sea-levels can act as accelerants of instability.

"We realised that climate change would be a threat multiplier for instability as people become desperate, because they have extreme weather and the seas are rising, and there are floods in one area and droughts in another, fragile states become more unpredictable." Sherri Goodman, Fmr. Dept Undersecretary of Defense

These Pentagon insiders say a failure to tackle climate change, conducting 'business as usual', would lead to profound consequences.

"It's a very dangerous thing to decide that there is one and only one line of events heading into the future and one and only one best response for dealing with that." Leon Fuerth, Fmr. National Security Adviser, White House '93-'01

The Age of Consequences, from PBS International, directed by Jared P Scott and presented by Sarah Ferguson, went to air on Monday 20th March at 8.30pm EDT. It was replayed on Tuesday 21st March at 10.00am and Wednesday 22nd at 11pm. It can also be seen on ABC News 24 on Saturday at 8.00pm AEST, and at ABC iview.

Link to transcript and background information

How the free market failed Australia and priced us out of our own gas supply | ABC

Within the next four years, Australia will overtake Qatar as the world's biggest supplier of gas. We are sitting on vast gas reserves. In fact, we're swimming in the stuff.

And yet, we face critical shortages at home which could starve manufacturers of fuel, see power outages across the eastern states and force energy prices through the roof while any profits that are made will be shipped offshore.

This is a public policy fail of epic proportions.

And it's worth getting a handle on how it all came about and the shenanigans employed by the gas majors that have deliberately created this crisis and the supposed shortage which is a total con.

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Clarke and Dawe: The energy market explained

Are you also confused about the Australian energy market? This may help clear up a few things ....

The heat is now on Directors when it comes to climate change | Lexology

In a recent ASIC liaison meeting, a number of corporate governance items were flagged as being a current focus of ASIC. Of particular interest is the emerging focus on climate change risk management by directors and implications for directors’ duties.

The opinion ‘Climate change and directors’ duties’ published by the Centre for Policy Development in October 2016 (download here) promoted wide spread discussion about the implications of climate change risk for directors. It argues that Australian company directors who fail to consider such risks now could be found liable for breaching their duty of care and diligence under section 180 of the Corporations Act in the future.

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Climate Council: without action, rising seas will cost us billions | The Conversation

Rising sea levels pose huge financial, economic and humanitarian risks, as shown by the Climate Council’s latest report, Counting the Costs: Climate Change and Coastal Flooding. If the world ignores the problem, by mid-century rising seas could cost the world more than a trillion dollars a year as floods and storm surges hit.

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Hurt by sea: how storm surges and sea-level rise make coastal life risky | The Conversation

The journal Climatic Change has published a special edition of review papers discussing major natural hazards in Australia. This article by The Conversation, which was written in November 2016, is one of a series looking at those threats.

Australia is a huge continent, but a coastal nation. About 80% of Australians live within 50km of the coast, and a sea-level rise of 1.1 metres (a high-end scenario for 2100) would put about A$63 billion (in 2008 dollars) worth of residential buildings at risk.

Anyone who lives along Sydney’s northern beaches, especially in Collaroy, saw at first hand the damage the ocean can wreak on coastal properties when the coastline was hit by a severe east coast low during a king tide in June.

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Carbon Dioxide Is Rising at Record Rates | Carbon Central

For the second year in a row, carbon dioxide concentrations as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory rose at a record-fast clip, according to new data released by the Environmental System Research Laboratory (ESRL). The annual growth of 3 parts per million in 2016 is the slightest shade below the jump in 2015 of 3.03 ppm. Both years mark the first time carbon dioxide has risen more than 3 ppm in a single year in ESRL’s 59 years of monitoring.

An exceptionally strong El Niño helped kick the numbers up a bit, but ever-increasing carbon pollution is the main driver behind the uptick. The annual growth rate has increased since record keeping began in 1960 from just under 1 ppm in the 1960s to more than 2.4 ppm through the first half of the 2010s. The past two years have set a record for the fastest annual growth rate on record.

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Unsafe to ignore climate risks, says APRA | AFR

The prudential regulator says it is "unsafe" to ignore climate change risks just because the topic is controversial, as at least one of the major banks reviews the mortgage risk associated with rising sea levels.

Looming energy crisis cries out for bipartisanship | AFR

If ever there was a test for all our politicians - and whether they can, for once, concentrate on the problem at hand rather than simply blame each other - this is it.  Maybe this is something dangerous enough for all involved that they will realise they need each other to help solve the problem .

Earth's oceans are warming 13% faster than thought, and accelerating | The Guardian

New research has convincingly quantified how much the Earth has warmed over the past 56 years. Human activities utilize fossil fuels for many beneficial purposes but have an undesirable side effect of adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere at ever-increasing rates. That increase - of over 40%, with most since 1980 - traps heat in the Earth’s system, warming the entire planet. 

But how fast is the Earth warming and how much will it warm in the future? Those are the critical questions we need to answer if we are going to make smart decisions on how to handle this issue. 

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Thabametsi coal-fired power station in SA’s first climate change lawsuit | Mining Review

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Earthlife Africa Johannesburg (ELA), represented by the Centre for Environmental Rights (CER), yesterday submitted comments on the draft climate change impact assessment for the Thabametsi power station, ahead of SA's first climate change lawsuit to start in the Pretoria High Court this week.

The impact assessment was made available for public comment in January 2017 following the Minister of Environmental Affairs’ decision to order Thabametsi coal-fired power station to conduct an assessment of the climate change impact of the proposed coal-fired power station in water-stressed Limpopo.

At the same time, the Minister decided to uphold the proposed power station’s environmental authorisation – a decision which ELA will be challenging in court from Thursday.

ELA’s case is based on the fact that climate change impact is a significant environmental impact, given the impact that climate change will have and is having on water availability and temperature increases, particularly in respect of a proposed coal-fired power station.

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Keep it in the ground: Shell's 1991 film warning of climate change danger uncovered | The Guardian

More than a quarter of a century ago, oil giant Shell made an extraordinary public film about the dangers of global warming, called Climate of Concern, which has just been rediscovered. The film, says one leading climate scientist, is one of the best he has ever seen: the science is sharp, the predictions uncannily accurate and the suggested solutions smart. The film even had an urgent message: “Action now is seen as the only safe insurance.”

Yet Shell has spent the 26 years since investing many billions in highly polluting tar sands and helping to lobby against climate action. As Bill McKibben told me: “Imagine if Shell had taken their own advice and we’d spent the last quarter century in all-out pursuit of renewables, energy efficiency, and conservation. We wouldn’t have solved the problem of global warming, but we’d be well on the way. Shell made a big difference in the world – a difference for the worse.”

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Turnbull is on a 'clean coal' collision course with APRA | The AFR

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is on a collision course with the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority over his government's crusade for Australia's $10 billion green bank to invest in "clean coal" power stations, experts say.

The independent banking regulator entered the climate policy debate 10 days ago with a speech by APRA member Geoff Summerhayes warning that banks and their directors could be legally liable if they fail to consider the increasing risk of carbon-intensive assets such as power stations becoming "stranded'.

APRA's dramatic intervention came days after Treasurer Scott Morrison brought a lump of coal to Parliament to champion "clean coal" power as a solution to the blackouts that have hit the electricity grid with growing shares of wind and solar energy and coal plant retirements.

Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg and other ministers say they will change the $10 billion Commonwealth-owned Clean Energy Finance Corporation's guidelines to redefine "clean energy' to include "clean coal" power in order to stabilise the grid.

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APRA channels its inner Fisher/Carney | Sarah Barker, Minter Ellison

Sarah Barker at the Climate Alliance National Conference in October 2016 talking on the subject of fiduciary duties.

As was heavily covered in the weekend press, there has been a significant shift in APRA’s position on the relevance of climate change risk to the financial sector.  In a keynote speech to the Insurance Council of Australia entitled 'Australia's New Horizon: Climate Change Challenges & Prudential Risk', Mr Geoff Summerhayes (Executive Board Member of APRA) stated:

·      APRA-regulated entities can no longer treat climate change as ‘non-financial’ issue, or one that will only crystallise in the distant future.  Associated risks extend far beyond the physical (ecological) realm to economic transition risks (regulatory, technological and societal). Many of these risks are financial in nature, foreseeable and material – and are actionable now by Australian banks, insurers, asset owners and asset managers. 

·      The speech cites three key recent developments that have influenced APRA in articulating this view: (a) the Paris Agreement, and Australia’s ratification thereof, (b) the G20 Financial Stability Board Bloomberg TCFD climate risk disclosure recommendations, and (c) a recent legal opinion on directors’ duties with regard to climate change risks by senior commercial barrister Noel Hutley SC (briefed by Sarah Barker of Minter Ellison on instruction of the Centre for Policy Development and Future Business Council). 

·      In dealing with these risks, ‘scenario planning is the new normal’. Markets and investors increasingly expect corporations to apply a sophisticated and robust approach to modelling of the potential impacts of climate-related risks under different scenarios, and over different time horizons.  This includes the sub-2°C transition scenario around which the Paris Agreement (ratified by Australia in November 2016) is anchored.  The Recommendations of the G20 Financial Stability Board’s TCFD, released on 14 December 2016, provide clear guidance in this regard.

·      A failure to proactively govern the financial risks associated with climate change, now, can present significant litigation exposures for corporations and their directors.

·      This does not mean that APRA is ‘suddenly elevating climate-related issues to the top of our priority list. But it does mean joining the wider conversation that is already going on around this issue – and being explicit that climate change is likely to have material, financial implications that should be carefully considered.’  

The full transcript of Mr Summerhayes' speech is available here.  

The climate bombshell the politicians didn't touch | The Age

Non-existent clean coal does not power Turnbull's house! | The Saturday Paper

 It is an unusual double standard by which Malcolm Turnbull lives.

The common complaint against politicians is that they do not practise what they preach, that their private behaviour is of a lower standard than what they publicly advocate. But in Prime Minister Turnbull’s case it’s the opposite. He practises what he dares not preach.

On his Point Piper mansion, his office confirmed this week, Turnbull has an array of solar panels capable of generating 14.5kW of electricity. 

That is a pretty big system. The current average capacity of new domestic solar systems in New South Wales is about 6kW, but people can get by with less, provided they are not profligate with their power.

The leader of the Greens, for example, Senator Richard Di Natale, runs a household of four people on 3kW of solar-generating capacity with attached storage, and lives completely off-grid. Occasionally, during the bleakest months of the Victorian winter, he tells us, he augments this with generator power. 

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APRA declares managing climate risk a prudential obligation | Investment Magazine

After years of ambiguity, the prudential regulator has stated clearly that banks, insurers and superannuation funds have a duty to calculate the financial risks associated with climate change.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) last week put the financial services industry on notice that it is worried about the financial risks climate change poses, declaring it an “important and explicit part” of the agency’s thinking.  More

How to spend an extra US$600 billion a year on climate finance | The Fifth Estate

Jenya Khvatsky’s start-up company CleanTek Market has been founded to create a global online platform to connect clean technology projects, technologies and organisations with investors, end users and intermediaries. Here’s how he reads the imperatives for such a service.

We are in the midst of a clean technology revolution. There is now widespread acceptance that the global economy is transitioning away from a traditional fossil-based model to one based on sustainable use of resources and energy.

To achieve an orderly transition, the scale of financing required can be counted in the trillions – not billions – of dollars. A widely quoted report by the International Energy Agency estimated that US$1 trillion a year to 2050 is required to finance this transition (IEA, 2015). Yet the cleantech market has averaged US$360 billion a year over the first half of this decade, peaking at US$391 billion in 2014, to be valued at US$5.5 trillion (CPI, 2015). The current scale of the market is impressive – and yet it is some 60 per cent below what is required. A clear market failure.

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'Clean coal' too costly for CEFC mandate | AFR

Mandating the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to invest in "clean coal" would require a spectacular government backflip just nine weeks after it issued the lender with strict conditions on the profitability of new projects. 

Federal Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann told the agency that its purpose was to help mobilise investment in "renewable energy, low emissions and energy efficiency projects and technologies", and instructed them to "apply commercial rigour when making investment decisions".

In particular, the direction said the CEFC must strive for an average return across the portfolio of 3 to 4 percentage points above the five year bond rate (2.3 per cent).

However, there are only three carbon capture and storage projects operating in the world and none are currently commercially viable. Super critical coal-fired power stations would also struggle to deliver commercial returns, while also  not meeting current guidelines to reduce emissions by 50 per cent.

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'Clean coal': billions of dollars and lots of carbon | Ben Potter

The Turnbull government wants to ease Clean Energy Finance Corporation guidelines to allow "clean coal" to qualify for "clean energy" funding but figures from a big Japanese supplier of clean coal plants suggest the guidelines would have to be gutted to get the plants over the line. Jonathan Carroll
A top executive at the largest Japanese supplier of high tech coal-fired power plants says they would likely cost more than thought in Australia and still emit relatively large quantities of carbon.

Akihiko Kazuno, head of global strategic planning for Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems, said the company's ultra-supercritical power stations – the most advanced currently being built commercially – typically cost between $US1.5 billion and $US3.5 billion per 1000 megawatts of capacity.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg, Treasurer Scott Morrison and the Minerals Council of Australia – which is launching a "Coal: Making the future possible" advertising campaign – are pushing for "clean coal" plants to be built in Australia.

But industry says the plants are "unbankable" because of their high costs and carbon risk and resources entrepreneurs Gina Rinehart and Trevor St Baker have shunned the technology too.

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